Saturday, October 23, 2010

Final Preseason Stats

Here are the final cumulative stats for the Raptors' preseason...


Regular Individual Stats:
PLAYER              +/-   MPG    RPG   ASG   BPG   SPG   PPG
Amir Johnson, PF    +28   19.1   5.3   0.6   0.9   0.8   9.3
Andrea Bargnani, C  -10   27.0   4.0   1.3   1.1   0.6  12.0
David Andersen, C    +8   15.9   3.6   0.8   0.3   0.8   6.1
DeMar DeRozan, SG   -20   25.4   3.8   1.3   0.3   1.1  12.0
Jarrett Jack, PG    +27   23.3   3.0   4.9   0.0   1.5  12.5
Joey Dorsey, PF     +48    6.8   2.9   0.8   0.3   0.4   2.6
Jose Calderon, PG   -13   20.9   0.9   5.3   0.1   0.9   5.5
Julian Wright, SF   +12    5.1   0.8   0.4   0.1   0.3   2.1
Leandro Barbosa, SG +17   22.8   2.0   1.8   0.1   1.0  13.6
Linas Kleiza, SF    +24   20.5   3.5   1.8   0.0   1.1  11.9
Marcus Banks, PG    +34    5.1   0.4   0.3   0.0   0.3   2.5
Reggie Evans, PF     +1   22.3   8.3   1.4   0.5   1.3   3.4
Ronald Dupree, SF   +19    7.0   1.0   0.3   0.1   0.3   2.5
Solomon Alabi, C     +8    3.0   0.6   0.0   0.1   0.1   1.3
Sonny Weems, SG     +31   21.3   2.8   2.3   0.0   0.5  11.4



Advanced Individual Stats (divided by starters, bench, and scrubs):


PLAYER                PER     TS%     AST%   USG%    REB%
Andrea Bargnani, C    8.38   0.421    7.11   25.09    8.56
Reggie Evans, PF      9.69   0.415    8.11   11.37   21.43
Linas Kleiza, SF     20.51   0.644   14.56   21.53    9.87
DeMar DeRozan, SG    12.51   0.484    7.63   23.03    8.54
Jarrett Jack, PG     22.07   0.675   32.73   21.08    7.46


David Andersen, C    13.39   0.540    6.99   16.87   13.20
Amir Johnson, PF     19.45   0.618    5.20   19.04   15.86
Sonny Weems, SG      13.87   0.502   17.99   25.19    7.48
Leandro Barbosa, SG  18.00   0.571   12.74   23.46    5.08
Jose Calderon, PG    10.52   0.422   34.54   15.76    2.42


Joey Dorsey, PF      24.95   0.619   16.59   13.09   24.61
Julian Wright, SF    21.71   0.843   10.89   11.26    8.46
Marcus Banks, PG      6.60   0.610    6.55   18.71    4.23
Ronald Dupree, SF    10.18   0.458    5.15   17.74    8.26
Solomon Alabi, C      9.27   0.556    0.00   20.84   12.04



Team 4 factors (ranking per last season's stats in parenthesis):


              Offense      Defense
Shooting     0.491 (21)   0.511 (21)
Turnovers    0.230 (30)   0.180 (1)
Rebounding   0.320 (1)    0.284 (29)
Free Throws  0.258 (4)    0.317 (30)



Team Efficiency (ranking per last season's stats in parenthesis):
Pace:  97.59  (2)
DRTG: 103.65  (4)
ORTG: 109.31 (10)

Thursday, October 21, 2010

Preseason Stats After Game 7

Here are the cumulative stats after game 7...


Regular Individual Stats:

PLAYER               +/-   MPG   RPG   ASG   BPG   SPG   PPG
Amir Johnson, PF    +23   19.6   5.7   0.7   1.0   0.9   10.0
Andrea Bargnani, C  -23   27.4   4.4   1.1   1.3   0.7   11.6
David Andersen, C    +6   15.1   3.4   0.4   0.3   0.9    5.3
DeMar DeRozan, SG   -23   25.7   3.9   1.4   0.3   1.3   12.1
Jarrett Jack, PG    +16   23.1   3.0   4.9   0.0   1.1   13.3
Joey Dorsey, PF     +44    6.0   2.7   0.4   0.1   0.3    2.7
Jose Calderon, PG   -13   21.6   1.0   5.1   0.1   0.7    4.7
Julian Wright, SF   +13    5.0   0.7   0.4   0.1   0.3    1.4
Leandro Barbosa, SG  +9   23.0   1.9   1.9   0.1   0.9   13.9
Linas Kleiza, SF    +31   20.6   3.6   1.6   0.0   1.0   11.9
Marcus Banks, PG    +40    4.7   0.4   0.3   0.0   0.1    2.9
Reggie Evans, PF     +5   22.6   7.9   1.1   0.6   1.4    3.6
Solomon Alabi, C    +18    3.0   0.6   0.0   0.1   0.1    1.1
Sonny Weems, SG     +24   20.6   2.6   2.0   0.0   0.4    11.4


Advanced Individual Stats (divided by starters, bench, and scrubs):

PLAYER                PER     TS%    AST%    USG%     REB%
Andrea Bargnani, C    7.74   0.401    6.37   25.36    9.28
Reggie Evans, PF      9.53   0.396    6.72   11.57   20.01
Linas Kleiza, SF     21.44   0.682   13.15   20.06    9.98
DeMar DeRozan, SG    13.71   0.483    8.71   22.61    8.62
Jose Calderon, PG     8.30   0.376   32.34   14.69    2.67


David Andersen, C    11.15   0.523    4.12   16.39   13.02
Amir Johnson, PF     21.18   0.625    6.03   20.22   16.79
Sonny Weems, SG      12.96   0.502   16.94   26.73    7.19
Leandro Barbosa, SG  17.85   0.570   13.62   23.75    4.64
Jarrett Jack, PG     23.00   0.686   33.92   21.96    7.45


Joey Dorsey, PF      26.37   0.681   11.10   13.95   26.01
Julian Wright, SF    17.17   0.806   11.83    8.63    8.21
Marcus Banks, PG     12.82   0.746    8.43   18.31    5.23
Solomon Alabi, C     13.39   0.571    0.00   15.99   10.95


Team 4 factors (ranking per last season's stats in parenthesis):

              Offense      Defense
Shooting     0.488 (25)   0.505 (19)
Turnovers    0.221 (30)   0.172 (1)
Rebounding   0.307 (2)    0.279 (27)
Free Throws  0.271 (2)    0.309 (30)



Team Efficiency (ranking per last season's stats in parenthesis):
Pace:  97.58  (2)
DRTG: 103.40  (4)
ORTG: 109.13 (11)

Monday, October 18, 2010

Preseason Stats After Game 6

Here are the cumulative stats after game 6...


Regular Individual Stats:

PLAYER               MPG    RPG   ASG   BPG   SPG    PPG
Amir Johnson, PF     20.2   6.0   0.7   1.2   0.7   10.3
Andrea Bargnani, C   27.2   4.7   1.2   1.5   0.8   10.3
David Andersen, C    14.7   3.3   0.5   0.3   1.0    4.7
DeMar DeRozan, SG    25.2   3.3   1.3   0.3   1.5   11.7
Jarrett Jack, PG     23.2   3.2   4.7   0.0   1.3   13.5
Joey Dorsey, PF       7.0   3.2   0.5   0.2   0.3    3.2
Jose Calderon, PG    21.0   1.0   5.5   0.2   0.8    5.5
Julian Wright, SF     5.8   0.8   0.5   0.2   0.3    1.7
Leandro Barbosa, SG  21.8   1.8   1.5   0.2   0.5   12.5
Linas Kleiza, SF     19.3   3.8   1.5   0.0   1.2   11.8
Marcus Banks, PG      5.5   0.5   0.3   0.0   0.2    3.3
Reggie Evans, PF     22.0   6.5   1.2   0.7   1.7    3.8
Ronald Dupree, SF     9.3   1.3   0.3   0.2   0.3    3.3
Solomon Alabi, C      3.5   0.7   0.0   0.2   0.2    1.3
Sonny Weems, SG      21.3   2.3   1.7   0.0   0.5   12.7


Advanced Individual Stats (divided by starters, bench, and scrubs):


PLAYER                PER     TS%     AST%   USG%    REB%
Andrea Bargnani, C    7.13   0.369   6.39   24.42    9.83
Reggie Evans, PF      9.69   0.414   7.05   12.01   16.91
Linas Kleiza, SF     24.39   0.712   13.37  20.55   11.35
DeMar DeRozan, SG    12.92   0.453   8.18   23.39    7.58
Jose Calderon, PG    11.35   0.436   36.09  15.26    2.72

David Andersen, C    11.16   0.487   4.95   16.09   13.00
Amir Johnson, PF     22.48   0.641   5.53   19.53   17.02
Sonny Weems, SG      14.33   0.515   13.87   27.43   6.26
Leandro Barbosa, SG  14.70   0.552   11.32  23.66    4.80
Jarrett Jack, PG     24.08   0.698   32.55  21.72    7.82

Solomon Alabi, C     13.50   0.571   0.00   15.98   10.90
Joey Dorsey, PF      26.51   0.681   11.05  13.94   25.89
Julian Wright, SF    17.25   0.806   11.78   8.63    8.17
Ronald Dupree, SF    10.37   0.458   5.19   17.85    8.17
Marcus Banks, PG     12.92   0.746   8.39   18.30    5.20


Team 4 factors (ranking per last season's stats in parenthesis):

              Offense      Defense
Shooting     0.489 (25)   0.500 (17)
Turnovers    0.216 (30)   0.176 (1)
Rebounding   0.306 (2)    0.292 (29)
Free Throws  0.264 (3)    0.303 (30)


Team Efficiency (ranking per last season's stats in parenthesis):

Pace:  97.34  (2)
DRTG: 102.13  (1)
ORTG: 109.98 (10)

Saturday, October 16, 2010

Preseason Stats After Game 5

Here are the cumulative stats after game 5...


Regular Individual Stats:


PLAYER               MPG    RPG   ASG   BPG   SPG    PPG
Amir Johnson, PF     19.2   5.0   0.4   1.4   0.8    9.0
Andrea Bargnani, C   27.6   4.6   1.2   1.8   0.6    9.4
David Andersen, C    17.6   4.0   0.6   0.4   1.2    5.6
DeMar DeRozan, SG    25.6   2.8   1.4   0.4   1.6   11.2
Jarrett Jack, PG     23.2   3.4   4.6   0.0   1.2   12.8
Joey Dorsey, PF       8.4   3.8   0.6   0.2   0.4    3.8
Jose Calderon, PG    21.0   1.2   5.4   0.0   0.8    5.0
Julian Wright, SF     7.0   1.0   0.6   0.2   0.4    2.0
Leandro Barbosa, SG  23.0   2.0   1.4   0.2   0.6   14.6
Linas Kleiza, SF     16.2   3.0   1.0   0.0   1.2    9.6
Marcus Banks, PG      5.6   0.2   0.4   0.0   0.2    3.6
Reggie Evans, PF     20.6   5.4   0.6   0.8   1.8    3.2
Ronald Dupree, SF    10.2   0.6   0.2   0.2   0.2    4.0
Solomon Alabi, C      3.2   0.6   0.0   0.2   0.2    1.6
Sonny Weems, SG      19.6   2.0   1.6   0.0   0.6   12.0



Advanced Individual Stats (divided by starters, bench, and scrubs):


PLAYER                PER     TS%     AST%   USG%    REB%
Andrea Bargnani, C    4.57   0.327    6.56   25.46   9.77
Reggie Evans, PF      8.41   0.361    4.05   12.14   15.37
Linas Kleiza, SF     23.46   0.716   11.10   20.39   10.86
DeMar DeRozan, SG    13.23   0.478    8.79   21.29    6.41
Jose Calderon, PG     8.97   0.404   36.63   15.91    3.35

David Andersen, C    11.25   0.487    5.22   16.45   13.32
Amir Johnson, PF     18.88   0.578    3.53   20.51   15.27
Sonny Weems, SG      17.29   0.568   15.60   26.18    5.98
Leandro Barbosa, SG  18.04   0.589   11.02   24.95    5.10
Jarrett Jack, PG     21.34   0.650   33.20   22.64    8.59

Solomon Alabi, C     22.19   0.667    0.00   16.08   10.99
Joey Dorsey, PF      26.67   0.681   11.68   14.25   26.52
Julian Wright, SF    17.34   0.806   12.38    8.82    8.38
Ronald Dupree, SF    11.39   0.561    3.06   15.84    3.45
Marcus Banks, PG     12.51   0.781   10.64   19.17    2.09


Team 4 factors (ranking per last season's stats in parenthesis):


              Offense      Defense
Shooting     0.485 (25)   0.501 (17)
Turnovers    0.214 (30)   0.180 (1)
Rebounding   0.268 (13)   0.297 (30)
Free Throws  0.279  (2)   0.314 (30)



Team Efficiency (ranking per last season's stats in parenthesis):


Pace:  97.06  (2)
DRTG: 102.31  (2)
ORTG: 107.51 (15)

Thursday, October 14, 2010

Preseason Stats After Game 4

Here are the cumulative stats after game 4...

Note: I had a bad cell in my spreadsheet which caused the Reb% to be inflated for some players. Problem fixed.

Regular Individual Stats:

PLAYER               MPG    RPG   ASG   BPG   SPG    PPG
Amir Johnson, PF     19.3   5.3   0.5   1.3   0.5    8.8
Andrea Bargnani, C   28.3   4.5   1.0   2.3   0.8    8.0
David Andersen, C    19.3   3.8   0.5   0.3   1.5    6.5
DeMar DeRozan, SG    26.0   2.8   1.5   0.3   1.5   12.3
Jarrett Jack, PG     25.5   3.8   5.0   0.0   1.5   14.5
Joey Dorsey, PF       8.8   3.0   0.5   0.3   0.5    4.3
Jose Calderon, PG    21.5   0.8   6.0   0.0   0.8    4.3
Julian Wright, SF     7.0   0.8   0.5   0.3   0.3    1.5
Leandro Barbosa, SG  24.0   2.0   1.5   0.3   0.8   15.3
Linas Kleiza, SF     15.0   3.0   0.5   0.0   1.3    8.3
Marcus Banks, PG      3.0   0.0   0.3   0.0   0.0    2.0
Reggie Evans, PF     19.5   4.8   0.8   0.8   1.5    3.5
Ronald Dupree, SF     9.5   0.8   0.0   0.0   0.3    4.3
Solomon Alabi, C      2.8   0.8   0.0   0.3   0.3    1.5
Sonny Weems, SG      20.3   2.3   1.0   0.0   0.8   11.5


Advanced Individual Stats:

PLAYER                PER     TS%    AST%   USG%    REB%
Solomon Alabi, C     30.96   0.750   0.00   15.73   16.45
Joey Dorsey, PF      27.93   0.711   9.44   14.78   20.68
Jarrett Jack, PG     24.83   0.639  33.22   23.47    8.87
Linas Kleiza, SF     23.75   0.758   5.78   18.57   12.06
Marcus Banks, PG     23.49   0.602  12.02   23.93    0.00
Leandro Barbosa, SG  20.93   0.607  11.64   24.46    5.03
Amir Johnson, PF     18.88   0.552   4.46   21.19   16.45
Sonny Weems, SG      16.93   0.550   9.11   25.55    6.70
Ronald Dupree, SF    15.94   0.656   0.00   15.89    4.76
DeMar DeRozan, SG    15.67   0.493   9.41   22.32    6.38
Julian Wright, SF    11.61   0.694  10.13    8.22    6.46
David Andersen, C    10.71   0.486   4.02   17.84   11.75
Reggie Evans, PF      9.86   0.419   5.40   12.60   14.69
Jose Calderon, PG     9.67   0.383  39.48   14.18    2.10
Andrea Bargnani, C    3.11   0.300   5.21   23.84    9.61


Team 4 factors (ranking per last season's stats in parenthesis):

              Offense       Defense
Shooting     0.493 (21)    0.486 (8)
Turnovers    0.222 (30)    0.189 (1)
Rebounding   0.249 (23)    0.310 (30)
Free Throws  0.276 (2)     0.263 (28)

Team Efficiency (ranking per last season's stats in parenthesis):

Pace:  88.62 (29)
ORTG: 115.67 (1)
DRTG: 107.23 (15)

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Preseason Stats After Game 3

Here are the cumulative stats after game 3...

Regular Individual Stats:

PLAYER                MPG   RPG   ASG   BPG   SPG    PPG
Amir Johnson, PF     16.7   4.0   0.3   1.0   0.3    8.0
Andrea Bargnani, C   25.3   3.3   1.0   1.7   0.7    6.0
David Andersen, C    19.3   3.0   0.3   0.3   1.7    6.7
DeMar DeRozan, SG    22.7   2.0   1.3   0.0   1.3   11.0
Jarrett Jack, PG     23.3   2.3   4.7   0.0   1.3   11.3
Joey Dorsey, PF      11.7   4.0   0.7   0.3   0.7    5.7
Jose Calderon, PG    20.3   0.7   5.3   0.0   0.7    4.3
Julian Wright, SF     9.3   1.0   0.7   0.3   0.3    2.0
Leandro Barbosa, SG  21.3   0.7   1.3   0.3   0.7   14.0
Linas Kleiza, SF     14.3   3.7   0.7   0.0   1.7    9.0
Marcus Banks, PG      4.0   0.0   0.3   0.0   0.0    2.7
Reggie Evans, PF     18.0   4.7   0.7   0.3   1.0    2.3
Ronald Dupree, SF    10.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.3    4.7
Solomon Alabi, C      3.7   1.0   0.0   0.3   0.3    2.0
Sonny Weems, SG      21.0   2.7   1.3   0.0   0.7   12.3


Advanced Individual Stats:

PLAYER               PER     TS%     AST%   USG%    REB%
Linas Kleiza, SF    32.76   0.800    8.81   19.35   36.27
Solomon Alabi, C    31.14   0.750    0.00   16.03   38.66
Marcus Banks, PG    23.62   0.602   12.30   24.38    0.00
Leandro Barbosa, SG 20.83   0.646   11.87   25.15    4.43
DeMar DeRozan, SG   18.58   0.553   10.07   20.63   12.51
Amir Johnson, PF    18.47   0.569    3.57   22.11   15.36
Sonny Weems, SG     18.28   0.541   12.93   26.72   18.00
Jarrett Jack, PG    18.14   0.546   32.37   24.65   14.18
Joey Dorsey, PF     18.10   0.711    9.70   15.06   48.61
Ronald Dupree, SF   16.89   0.632    0.00   17.75   14.18
Julian Wright, SF   11.68   0.694   10.36    8.37   15.19
David Andersen, C   10.97   0.530    2.77   17.38   22.00
Jose Calderon, PG   10.24   0.378   37.73   14.59    4.65
Reggie Evans, PF     2.74   0.273    5.12   15.38   36.75
Andrea Bargnani, C   1.09   0.305    5.68   21.18    9.33


Team 4 factors (ranking per last season's stats in parenthesis):

              Offense       Defense
Shooting     0.489 (25)    0.507 (20)
Turnovers    0.231 (30)    0.213 (1)
Rebounding   0.256 (20)    0.324 (30)
Free Throws  0.285 (2)     0.273 (30)

Team Efficiency:

Pace:  87.94
ORTG: 115.98
DRTG: 105.37

Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Preseason Cumulative Stats

Some advanced and regular stats that I will track cumulatively during the preseason...

Regular Individual Stats:

PLAYER              MPG    RPG   ASG   BPG   SPG    PPG
Amir Johnson, PF    15.0   4.5   0.5   1.5   0.0    7.0
Andrea Bargnani, C  25.0   3.5   1.0   1.0   0.5    3.5
David Andersen, C   19.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   1.5    5.5
DeMar DeRozan, SG   25.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   2.0   13.5
Jarrett Jack, PG    22.0   3.0   4.0   0.0   1.0   14.0
Joey Dorsey, PF     13.5   5.5   1.0   0.0   1.0    8.5
Jose Calderon, PG   19.5   0.5   4.5   0.0   1.0    4.0
Julian Wright, SF    7.0   1.0   0.5   0.5   0.0    1.5
Leandro Barbosa, SG 19.0   1.0   0.5   0.0   0.5   11.0
Linas Kleiza, SF    21.5   5.5   1.0   0.0   2.5   13.5
Marcus Banks, PG     6.0   0.0   0.5   0.0   0.0    4.0
Reggie Evans, PF    17.5   4.5   1.0   0.5   0.5    3.5
Ronald Dupree, SF    5.0   0.5   0.0   0.0   0.0    4.0
Solomon Alabi, C     4.0   1.5   0.0   0.5   0.5    2.0
Sonny Weems, SG     22.0   4.0   2.0   0.0   1.0   12.5

Advanced Individual Stats:

PLAYER                PER     TS%     AST%    USG%    REB%
Joey Dorsey, PF      35.68   0.711   13.58   18.32   49.09
Linas Kleiza, SF     32.72   0.800    8.69   18.16   30.83
Solomon Alabi, C     31.21   0.667    0.00   15.51   45.19
Jarrett Jack, PG     28.19   0.672   31.04   23.35   16.43
Marcus Banks, PG     23.65   0.602   12.18   22.89   0.00
Amir Johnson, PF     20.72   0.535    5.55   20.79   18.08
DeMar DeRozan, SG    20.24   0.566    6.81   21.37    9.64
Sonny Weems, SG      17.85   0.496   17.56   26.51   21.91
Ronald Dupree, SF    17.70   0.565    0.00   33.42   12.05
Leandro Barbosa, SG  14.05   0.652    4.96   22.73    6.34
David Andersen, C     8.30   0.506    0.00   14.02   19.03
Jose Calderon, PG     8.17   0.372   32.21   14.59    3.09
Reggie Evans, PF      6.49   0.319    8.04   16.50   30.99
Julian Wright, SF     6.46   0.452   10.26   12.76   17.21
Andrea Bargnani, C   -6.10   0.187    5.50   20.48    8.44

Team 4 factors (ranking per last season's stats in parenthesis):

              Offense       Defense
Shooting     0.485 (25)    0.475 (1)
Turnovers    0.231 (30)    0.240 (1)
Rebounding   0.302 (3)     0.270 (22)
Free Throws  0.348 (1)     0.257 (26)

Team Efficiency:

Pace:  88.84
ORTG: 121.56
DRTG:  95.11

Monday, September 27, 2010

Will the Raptors run a fast-paced offense?

The Raptors intend to run this season. I hate this. Not because I don't like it, it's because every coach the Raptors have ever had, said the same thing at the beginning of the season. Even when the Raptors used the 16th slowest pace in NBA history, Kevin O'Neill preached to the media hordes in training camp that the team will run. It's such a cliché, it's not funny anymore.

But what are the ingredients for running a fast-paced offense? Usually, there are 3 main areas:

1. Defensive rebounding: When your team can secure a high percentage of available defensive rebounds, you have more chances of outleting the ball for a fastbreak opportunity. For that, you need capable rebounders, especially from the bigs. Unfortunately for the Raptors, even with good rebounders lile Chris Bosh, Amir Johnson and Reggie Evans, they were ranked 23rd in the league in defensive rebounding, securing only 72.9% of all available defensive rebounds. Bargnani was the main culprit on that end, as other centers muscled rebounds away from him and kept extra possessions.

If a coach is confident that his Center and his Power Forward are going to get the ball, he can then ask his wings to leak out, which can lead to easy scores when the defense is napping.

However, there's a counter-argument to this. Golden State led the league in fastbreak points (23.8 ppg) and pace (100.4) last season, despite managing to coral only 68.5% of available defensive rebounds, the worst mark in the league. However, to do that, the Warriors used the 2 remaining ingredients of fast-paced offense.

2. Forcing turnovers: The Warriors led the league in forcing turnovers on 15.1% of the opponent's possessions. With such a high turnover rate, you can basically run at will. Obviously, such a high rate comes with a caveat. The Warriors gamble a lot on steals, and when you miss forcing a turnover, you end up with a DRTG of 108.1, the 29th worst defence, just ahead of the Raptors.

Unfortunately for the Raptors, again, they were ranked 29th in the league in forcing turnover, with a wretched mark of 11.8% (on a side note, how can you play it safe, yet still end up with one of the worst defences in NBA history?). The reason is simple, the Raptors' guards (Calderon 1.3%, DeRozan 1.3%, Jack 1.4%, and Wright 1.1%) weren't much of a threat to steal the ball. No steals, no turnovers, no running game.

3. If all else fails, you need quick guards that can take the ball and run, even off of made baskets. But again, the Raptors lack that quick ball handler that can weave through defenses. Calderon is a half-court distributor, there's no denying that. Jack is a bull in a china shop, but he's no waterbug. On other occasions, Hedo handled the ball, and we know that wasn't going to be a fastbreak. So, asking your PG to run isn't easy if you don't have the right personnel.

In summer league action, the Raptors broke the 100 pace, but they had a quick guard, quick wings, and good rebounders. And in a short tournament with no training camp or elaborate game plans, defenses aren't geared to stopping you.

The Raptors enter the 2010-2011 with the same slow guards, same lack of rebounding from their bigs and still no steal machine. If you hear Triano say we're going to run, just laugh. Or not.

Monday, September 20, 2010

Predicting the Raptors' record

Predicting a team’s final record, despite good intentions, is a fool’s gold. So many things can happen during a season that it must solely be considered a fun exercise. And that’s all I’m getting out of this. Starting today, I’ll be doing some predictions for the Eastern and, if time permits, the Western Conference.

I like using APM (Adjusted Plus/Minus), because when it’s totalled, you can get to a number that you can plug into a spreadsheet and spit out a Pythagorean Win/Loss record. However, there are so many moving variables during a season that I will not limit myself to one record. I’ve decided to do a range of upper and lower limits.

Some of the moving variables are things like trades, injuries (season-ending or otherwise), fluctuating playing time, unexpected rookie performances, etc. Impossible task? Yes and no.

Yes, because of said moving parts. What if Calderon is traded in December and Banks takes over as a backup? What if Ed Davis, who I’ve slotted in as playing doesn’t suit up until January? What if Kleiza excels and Weems’ playing time shrinks?

No, because since I used ranges instead of a single number, we can more or less figure out how this team or that team will perform.

I set myself some criteria: First, I assigned minutes to 10 main rotation players, 5 starters and 5 bench players. Since the average NBA team plays about 19800 minutes per season, and the backend of the rotation (5 scrubs at the end of the bench) play around 1000 to 1500 of those minutes (in blowouts and situational rotations), I had to assign around 18500 to those 10 main players. Not an easy task, but using past performances and team situation, I made the best guess possible, I think. Next, relying on the numbers from basketballvalue.com, I used the player’s best and worst APM from the past 2 seasons to get a range of performances. The final part was about guessing the team’s pace and ORTG in order to get a possible PPG from which I can extrapolate the Pythagorean Win/Loss record. For that, I used each team’s numbers from last year. If the coach remained the same, it was more likely that the pace remained about equal. If the coach changed (say, like Chicago), then a guess as to the coach’s style was in order.

Today, we start with the Raptors. The departure of Chris Bosh, one of the top APM players in the league last year, despite his high usage, is going to have all kinds of ripple effects on team performance. The Raptors had the 5th best offence in the league, and there is no way they would repeat that without Bosh. I dropped their ORTG a couple of notches, and since there are hints that the team will run more, I upped their pace from 93.1 to 94.0. I ended up with 101.8 PPG.

During minute allocation, I ran time and again into the Calderon issue. Fortunately, his APM is more or less in line with Jack’s, so any minutes won or lost will have about the same effect on the final record. A bit more offence from Calderon is usually compensated by a bit more defence from Jack. However, the main question marks are Linas Kleiza and Ed Davis. Kleiza had a -2.48 APM in Denver, two seasons ago, on a good offensive (7th overall) and defensive (8th overall) team. He’s obviously improved a lot, but will his improved performance even have an impact on what is a below-average team overall? I assigned him a slightly positive score of +1.00 APM as a best-case scenario. If he outperforms this, then the Raptors might be even better. Ed Davis is a complete unknown, just like any other rookie. But he was known for his defence in college, and his offence isn’t too shabby either. However, it is rare for a rookie to have a positive APM right off the bat, so I put him on the negative side of the ledge at -2.00. Again, if he outperforms this by any stretch, then the record improves even further.

So, final record?

If nothing goes well, i.e. everyone has a bad season, DeRozan doesn’t improve, Amir’s amazing APM takes a hit with him as a starter, Bargnani has another dismal defensive performance, etc., the Raptors will drop as low as 0.178 (14.56 wins). If everyone performs well, Barbosa recaptures his past glories, Amir maintains his high efficiency, Bargnani improves, etc., the Raptors might be able to claim 33.5 wins (0.409).

The truth is probably somewhere in the middle.

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

The curse of the midrange

You hear, time and again, from old-time broadcasters or journalists how the "art" of the midrange has been lost on this new generation of ball players, and how everything now has to be either a dunk or a 3-point shot. One of the benefits of advanced statistics was that it debunked the myth of the midrange game. It stinks.

Teams, like the Celtics, after hiring statheads, figured out quickly that allowing the opponent to shoot the midrange and limiting their inside and 3-point opportunities was a recipe for success. You can't stop the opponent on every possession, but you can limit his opportunities for high-yield scores by concentrating on the 3-point shot and the inside play. League-wide, the breakdown of eFG% from different locations was as follows:

Paint      Midrange    3-pt shot
0.566      0.397       0.533

And this doesn't take into account that midrange shots usually generate a low amount of FTA. The payload in terms of points per shot (PPS) is even lower.

Since there are no stats kept for where shooting fouls were generated, we have to make certain assumptions. If I were to be conservative in my guess, I'd say 70% of shooting fouls are generated in the painted area, 20% in the midrange area, and 10% behind the 3-point line. The average team generated 2013 FTA last year, 24 of which were technical fouls, so there were 1989 FTA generated off of actual plays, i.e. 1193 were generated in the painted area, 398 from the midrange, and 199 from behind the 3-point line. At a 0.759 conversion rate, the points generated off of free throws look something like this:

Paint     Midrange    3-pt shot
1052      301         150

Consequently, the PPS generated would look something like for the average team:

Paint     Midrange    3-pt shot
1.492     0.972       1.165

You get the idea. The payload from midrange is pretty low and should be avoided at all costs.

So, how did the Raptors fare last season?

Overall, the Raptors generated 1.286 PPS last season. The FGA breakdown looks like this:

Paint     Midrange    3-pt shot
35.0      28.8        17.0

In terms of PPS, it looks like this:

Paint     Midrange    3-pt shot
1.571     0.961       1.226

They took the 13th most FGA from midrange, but were the 2nd best in accuracy from that range (0.413). However, they generated less PPS than the average team. They were great in the paint and from the 3-point line, generating more PPS than the average NBA team.

On the defensive end, they allowed the 6th least from midrange (25.8 FGA) and the 2nd worst FG% (0.411). They basically went against the grain, by denying the opponent the midrange, and allowing him to shoot from 3 (4th worst, 20.3 FGA at 0.549 eFG%, which is 5th worst) and inside the paint (9th worst, 37.1 FGA at 0.563 eFG%, 15th worst).

So, how will next season play out? Chris Bosh was the best Raptor at generating points in the paint with a PPS of 1.698. With him in another uniform, someone else has to generate extra shots in the paint or from the 3-point line. Unfortunately, as the numbers have shown, even with Bosh, the Raptors were below average at avoiding the midrange (themselves) or at opening up the midrange (to the opponent). DeRozan and Kleiza might make up some of the difference, but I have a feeling it will be a long winter of looooong jumpers clanking off the rim.

Saturday, September 11, 2010

Bargnani and free throws

I have to admit I've been harsh on Andrea Bargnani. It's not that I hate his game; it's just that his defense is so wretched and detrimental to the team that I sometimes forget how talented he could be on the offensive end. In fact, I don't know of any center or power forward in the league who can do these four things: Shoot the three pointer, dribble drive, shoot the mid-range off the dribble AND post up. Usually, it's one or 2, or maybe 3. But Bargnani can do the four of them with above-average efficiency.

What gets lost in this is that when you're ranked 215th among players with significant minutes in the league (750+ min) in FTA/FGA ratio, something is wrong. Bargnani basically generates 0.205 free throw per FGA. Compare that to other big men, like Dwight Howard (0.978), Marc Gasol (0.582), Kendrick Perkins (0.537), and Chris Bosh (0.509). Even jump-shooting big men, like Nowitzki, have double his rate (0.392).

But, why is that?

I dug into the stats to get some sort of explanation, and came up with 2 interrelated causes:

First, for the past 4 years, the Raptors have never used Bargnani as a first option. He's been mostly used as the outlet when Bosh gets doubled, which limits his scoring opportunities, as well as his free throw possibilities. Consider that on 1350 plays last year, Bargnani was used as the decoy (spot-up shooter) 511 times. That is 38% of his total plays. Over the 80 games he played, that represents 6.4 spot-up plays per game. When you consider that those plays provide almost zero possibility of creating free throws, it is one darn-good explanation.

Second, Bargnani is an awful rebounder for his size, but his positioning on the Raptors' set plays is problematic for getting involved in offensive rebounding.  Offensive rebounds usually lead to out-of-position defense and reaching, which lead to extra free throws. Could he be used differently to get him more offensive rebounds? Well, with the Italian national team this summer, Bargnani increased his ORB% from 4.6% (with the Raptors) to 5.8%. In terms of actual rebounds, that translates into 0.4 extra offensive boards per game. Whether that translates back into the NBA remains to be seen.

Bargnani could be ready to make the leap into better offensive production next year. He's already increased his FTA/FGA Ratio to 0.283 with the Italian national team, but that was against lower-level competition. It could be real, and the Raptors have a first option again, or it could be a fluke, and he's just what we see: a jumpshooting big man who shies away from contact.

Friday, September 10, 2010

Bargnani as Nowitzki...

More Bargnani...

It has come to my attention that Bargnani is like Dirk. Not an egregious comparison on the surface. So, let's take a look at some of their stats for comparison's sake.

Both players like to shoot the jumper (Nowitzki at 83% of his attempts, Bargnani at 74%), but while Nowitzki uses a bigger volume of shots, Bargnani is the more accurate shooter (eFG% of 0.479 to Nowitzki's 0.474). Not a big difference, but something to note.

So, technically, if Bargnani were to shoot the same volume as Nowitzki, he should average about the same ppg, right? Unfortunately, there's the issue of FTA. Nowitzki's FGA/FTA rate is 0.389, almost double that of Bargnani's 0.202.

For someone who works more in the post, Bargnani should be getting more free-throw opportunities. It could be that Bargnani avoids contact, it could be because the threat of Nowitzki's sweet jumper pushes the defender closer to Dirk's body, creating more contact. I can't explain it.

So, how come Nowitzki (PER of 22.9), at 31, is still so much better than a younger Bargnani (PER of 15.5), at 24? For one, effort. The next time you'll see Nowitzki jogging back on an opponent fast-break will the the first time (of course, I'm exaggerating, but you get the idea). Nowitzki (Reb% of 20.1) also gets his nose dirty on the defensive boards, while Bargnani (15.9%) is caught too often looking at the ball carom off the rim.

There's also the assist ratio, where Nowitzki (13.0%) provides almost three times more assists than Bargnani (5.4%). Bargnani's assists may look pretty and crisp on certain nights, but they are few and far between.

Bargnani has reached the final stage. Colangelo has told us to judge him after 5 years. This next season will make him or break him. No more excuses of coaches not utilizing him properly, teammates taking away his rebounds, point guards ignoring him, Calderon putting him in a precarious position defensively, etc. We've heard it all through the years. Time to put up or shut up.