Predicting a team’s final record, despite good intentions, is a fool’s gold. So many things can happen during a season that it must solely be considered a fun exercise. And that’s all I’m getting out of this. Starting today, I’ll be doing some predictions for the Eastern and, if time permits, the Western Conference.
I like using APM (Adjusted Plus/Minus), because when it’s totalled, you can get to a number that you can plug into a spreadsheet and spit out a Pythagorean Win/Loss record. However, there are so many moving variables during a season that I will not limit myself to one record. I’ve decided to do a range of upper and lower limits.
Some of the moving variables are things like trades, injuries (season-ending or otherwise), fluctuating playing time, unexpected rookie performances, etc. Impossible task? Yes and no.
Yes, because of said moving parts. What if Calderon is traded in December and Banks takes over as a backup? What if Ed Davis, who I’ve slotted in as playing doesn’t suit up until January? What if Kleiza excels and Weems’ playing time shrinks?
No, because since I used ranges instead of a single number, we can more or less figure out how this team or that team will perform.
I set myself some criteria: First, I assigned minutes to 10 main rotation players, 5 starters and 5 bench players. Since the average NBA team plays about 19800 minutes per season, and the backend of the rotation (5 scrubs at the end of the bench) play around 1000 to 1500 of those minutes (in blowouts and situational rotations), I had to assign around 18500 to those 10 main players. Not an easy task, but using past performances and team situation, I made the best guess possible, I think. Next, relying on the numbers from basketballvalue.com, I used the player’s best and worst APM from the past 2 seasons to get a range of performances. The final part was about guessing the team’s pace and ORTG in order to get a possible PPG from which I can extrapolate the Pythagorean Win/Loss record. For that, I used each team’s numbers from last year. If the coach remained the same, it was more likely that the pace remained about equal. If the coach changed (say, like Chicago), then a guess as to the coach’s style was in order.
Today, we start with the Raptors. The departure of Chris Bosh, one of the top APM players in the league last year, despite his high usage, is going to have all kinds of ripple effects on team performance. The Raptors had the 5th best offence in the league, and there is no way they would repeat that without Bosh. I dropped their ORTG a couple of notches, and since there are hints that the team will run more, I upped their pace from 93.1 to 94.0. I ended up with 101.8 PPG.
During minute allocation, I ran time and again into the Calderon issue. Fortunately, his APM is more or less in line with Jack’s, so any minutes won or lost will have about the same effect on the final record. A bit more offence from Calderon is usually compensated by a bit more defence from Jack. However, the main question marks are Linas Kleiza and Ed Davis. Kleiza had a -2.48 APM in Denver, two seasons ago, on a good offensive (7th overall) and defensive (8th overall) team. He’s obviously improved a lot, but will his improved performance even have an impact on what is a below-average team overall? I assigned him a slightly positive score of +1.00 APM as a best-case scenario. If he outperforms this, then the Raptors might be even better. Ed Davis is a complete unknown, just like any other rookie. But he was known for his defence in college, and his offence isn’t too shabby either. However, it is rare for a rookie to have a positive APM right off the bat, so I put him on the negative side of the ledge at -2.00. Again, if he outperforms this by any stretch, then the record improves even further.
So, final record?
If nothing goes well, i.e. everyone has a bad season, DeRozan doesn’t improve, Amir’s amazing APM takes a hit with him as a starter, Bargnani has another dismal defensive performance, etc., the Raptors will drop as low as 0.178 (14.56 wins). If everyone performs well, Barbosa recaptures his past glories, Amir maintains his high efficiency, Bargnani improves, etc., the Raptors might be able to claim 33.5 wins (0.409).
The truth is probably somewhere in the middle.
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