Friday, September 10, 2010

Bargnani as Nowitzki...

More Bargnani...

It has come to my attention that Bargnani is like Dirk. Not an egregious comparison on the surface. So, let's take a look at some of their stats for comparison's sake.

Both players like to shoot the jumper (Nowitzki at 83% of his attempts, Bargnani at 74%), but while Nowitzki uses a bigger volume of shots, Bargnani is the more accurate shooter (eFG% of 0.479 to Nowitzki's 0.474). Not a big difference, but something to note.

So, technically, if Bargnani were to shoot the same volume as Nowitzki, he should average about the same ppg, right? Unfortunately, there's the issue of FTA. Nowitzki's FGA/FTA rate is 0.389, almost double that of Bargnani's 0.202.

For someone who works more in the post, Bargnani should be getting more free-throw opportunities. It could be that Bargnani avoids contact, it could be because the threat of Nowitzki's sweet jumper pushes the defender closer to Dirk's body, creating more contact. I can't explain it.

So, how come Nowitzki (PER of 22.9), at 31, is still so much better than a younger Bargnani (PER of 15.5), at 24? For one, effort. The next time you'll see Nowitzki jogging back on an opponent fast-break will the the first time (of course, I'm exaggerating, but you get the idea). Nowitzki (Reb% of 20.1) also gets his nose dirty on the defensive boards, while Bargnani (15.9%) is caught too often looking at the ball carom off the rim.

There's also the assist ratio, where Nowitzki (13.0%) provides almost three times more assists than Bargnani (5.4%). Bargnani's assists may look pretty and crisp on certain nights, but they are few and far between.

Bargnani has reached the final stage. Colangelo has told us to judge him after 5 years. This next season will make him or break him. No more excuses of coaches not utilizing him properly, teammates taking away his rebounds, point guards ignoring him, Calderon putting him in a precarious position defensively, etc. We've heard it all through the years. Time to put up or shut up.

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