You hear, time and again, from old-time broadcasters or journalists how the "art" of the midrange has been lost on this new generation of ball players, and how everything now has to be either a dunk or a 3-point shot. One of the benefits of advanced statistics was that it debunked the myth of the midrange game. It stinks.
Teams, like the Celtics, after hiring statheads, figured out quickly that allowing the opponent to shoot the midrange and limiting their inside and 3-point opportunities was a recipe for success. You can't stop the opponent on every possession, but you can limit his opportunities for high-yield scores by concentrating on the 3-point shot and the inside play. League-wide, the breakdown of eFG% from different locations was as follows:
Paint Midrange 3-pt shot
0.566 0.397 0.533
And this doesn't take into account that midrange shots usually generate a low amount of FTA. The payload in terms of points per shot (PPS) is even lower.
Since there are no stats kept for where shooting fouls were generated, we have to make certain assumptions. If I were to be conservative in my guess, I'd say 70% of shooting fouls are generated in the painted area, 20% in the midrange area, and 10% behind the 3-point line. The average team generated 2013 FTA last year, 24 of which were technical fouls, so there were 1989 FTA generated off of actual plays, i.e. 1193 were generated in the painted area, 398 from the midrange, and 199 from behind the 3-point line. At a 0.759 conversion rate, the points generated off of free throws look something like this:
Paint Midrange 3-pt shot
1052 301 150
Consequently, the PPS generated would look something like for the average team:
Paint Midrange 3-pt shot
1.492 0.972 1.165
You get the idea. The payload from midrange is pretty low and should be avoided at all costs.
So, how did the Raptors fare last season?
Overall, the Raptors generated 1.286 PPS last season. The FGA breakdown looks like this:
Paint Midrange 3-pt shot
35.0 28.8 17.0
In terms of PPS, it looks like this:
Paint Midrange 3-pt shot
1.571 0.961 1.226
They took the 13th most FGA from midrange, but were the 2nd best in accuracy from that range (0.413). However, they generated less PPS than the average team. They were great in the paint and from the 3-point line, generating more PPS than the average NBA team.
On the defensive end, they allowed the 6th least from midrange (25.8 FGA) and the 2nd worst FG% (0.411). They basically went against the grain, by denying the opponent the midrange, and allowing him to shoot from 3 (4th worst, 20.3 FGA at 0.549 eFG%, which is 5th worst) and inside the paint (9th worst, 37.1 FGA at 0.563 eFG%, 15th worst).
So, how will next season play out? Chris Bosh was the best Raptor at generating points in the paint with a PPS of 1.698. With him in another uniform, someone else has to generate extra shots in the paint or from the 3-point line. Unfortunately, as the numbers have shown, even with Bosh, the Raptors were below average at avoiding the midrange (themselves) or at opening up the midrange (to the opponent). DeRozan and Kleiza might make up some of the difference, but I have a feeling it will be a long winter of looooong jumpers clanking off the rim.
Teams, like the Celtics, after hiring statheads, figured out quickly that allowing the opponent to shoot the midrange and limiting their inside and 3-point opportunities was a recipe for success. You can't stop the opponent on every possession, but you can limit his opportunities for high-yield scores by concentrating on the 3-point shot and the inside play. League-wide, the breakdown of eFG% from different locations was as follows:
Paint Midrange 3-pt shot
0.566 0.397 0.533
And this doesn't take into account that midrange shots usually generate a low amount of FTA. The payload in terms of points per shot (PPS) is even lower.
Since there are no stats kept for where shooting fouls were generated, we have to make certain assumptions. If I were to be conservative in my guess, I'd say 70% of shooting fouls are generated in the painted area, 20% in the midrange area, and 10% behind the 3-point line. The average team generated 2013 FTA last year, 24 of which were technical fouls, so there were 1989 FTA generated off of actual plays, i.e. 1193 were generated in the painted area, 398 from the midrange, and 199 from behind the 3-point line. At a 0.759 conversion rate, the points generated off of free throws look something like this:
Paint Midrange 3-pt shot
1052 301 150
Consequently, the PPS generated would look something like for the average team:
Paint Midrange 3-pt shot
1.492 0.972 1.165
You get the idea. The payload from midrange is pretty low and should be avoided at all costs.
So, how did the Raptors fare last season?
Overall, the Raptors generated 1.286 PPS last season. The FGA breakdown looks like this:
Paint Midrange 3-pt shot
35.0 28.8 17.0
In terms of PPS, it looks like this:
Paint Midrange 3-pt shot
1.571 0.961 1.226
They took the 13th most FGA from midrange, but were the 2nd best in accuracy from that range (0.413). However, they generated less PPS than the average team. They were great in the paint and from the 3-point line, generating more PPS than the average NBA team.
On the defensive end, they allowed the 6th least from midrange (25.8 FGA) and the 2nd worst FG% (0.411). They basically went against the grain, by denying the opponent the midrange, and allowing him to shoot from 3 (4th worst, 20.3 FGA at 0.549 eFG%, which is 5th worst) and inside the paint (9th worst, 37.1 FGA at 0.563 eFG%, 15th worst).
So, how will next season play out? Chris Bosh was the best Raptor at generating points in the paint with a PPS of 1.698. With him in another uniform, someone else has to generate extra shots in the paint or from the 3-point line. Unfortunately, as the numbers have shown, even with Bosh, the Raptors were below average at avoiding the midrange (themselves) or at opening up the midrange (to the opponent). DeRozan and Kleiza might make up some of the difference, but I have a feeling it will be a long winter of looooong jumpers clanking off the rim.
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